Examining the divide between Harris and Trump on Social Security and Medicare spending

In the final days of this election, both presidential candidates are trying to win over older voters with their plans for entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare. Social Security is at risk of being depleted as soon as 2034 and Medicare could be insolvent by 2036. Lisa Desjardins has a look at how both campaigns say they’ll tackle the issue.
Amna Nawaz:
In the final days of this election, both presidential candidates are trying to win over older voters with their plans for entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, which provide financial protections to retired and disabled Americans.
But Social Security, a program that has long been popular with both parties, is at risk of being depleted as soon as 2034, and Medicare will be insolvent by 2036, leaving families without critical financial support.
As part of our in-depth coverage of the candidates’ Promises and Policies, Lisa Desjardins is here to walk us through how both campaigns say they will tackle the issue.
Good to see you, Lisa.
Lisa Desjardins:
Good to see you.
Amna Nawaz:
So let’s start with the stakes here.
If these programs do become insolvent, who’s at risk?
Lisa Desjardins:
A massive group of people.
Before Social Security and Medicare were in place together, 35 percent of American seniors lived in poverty. That number is more like 10 percent now. If Congress and the White House do not do anything, Social Security will see 20 percent cuts within the next decade, and, by some estimates, senior poverty will double.
Now, there are ways to solve this. They’re politically tricky, but it takes making tough choices.
Amna Nawaz:
All right, so let’s start with what the candidates say here.
And let’s start with a program that’s going insolvent first, Social Security.
Lisa Desjardins:
Neither candidate has a comprehensive plan to stabilize Social Security. And, in fact, analysts have found that one candidate’s plan would actually destabilize it. That’s former President Donald Trump.
Let’s talk about how he speaks on this. Here’s one of his messages on the campaign trail.
Donald Trump, Former President of the United States (R) and Current U.S. Presidential Candidate: I will cut all of the bad talk about Social Security. They’re going to destroy your Social Security, but I will not cut 1 cent from Social Security or Medicare.
(Cheering)
Donald Trump:
And I kept my promise for four years that I will keep it again, and seniors should not pay taxes on Social Security.
(Cheering)
Lisa Desjardins:
OK, so Trump specifically says he will end income taxes on Social Security, he would end payroll taxes, which fund Social Security, on tips and overtime pay, and, in addition, not raise the retirement age, currently 67 years old.
He has no proposals for making the system more solvent. And I should also point out, 20 years ago in a book, he had different policy proposals. He wanted to privatize the system and raise the Social Security retirement age then.
Amna Nawaz:
So you said the plans would make Social Security less stable, right? How so, specifically?
Lisa Desjardins:
Specifically, Trump’s plan has been analyzed by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
The system is running out of money as it is, and essentially his plans would reduce the funding. So let’s look at what they found. They found that Trump’s plan would most likely make Social Security insolvent and force cuts three years sooner, by 2031. And the cut eventually would be larger, a 33 percent cut in benefits in 10 years, they found.
Now, this also is something that would affect people beginning with those who are 60 years old now and want to retire by 67. And, of course, those kinds of cuts would affect everyone on Social Security now as well.
Amna Nawaz:
So we know Vice President Harris has been critical of former President Trump’s plans, but what are her plans? What would she do?
Lisa Desjardins:
Yes, let’s start with how Vice President Harris talks about Social Security herself.
Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States (D) and U.S. Presidential Candidate: My plan includes what we need to do to strengthen the solvency of Social Security. It includes what we’re going to need to do in work with Congress to make sure we’re putting more into it. And it cannot be about cutting benefits, because right now those benefits are barely adequate as it is.
Lisa Desjardins:
Now, Harris has also not given any details about how she would keep the system solvent while potentially expanding benefits.
And remember that doing nothing about that means there would actually be an automatic cut going into place in 2034. So without any more details, Harris’ plan heads us towards a cut in Social Security.
We spoke to Maya MacGuineas, who heads the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, about these two plans for Social Security.
Maya MacGuineas, President, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget: And if you just take Social Security, what’s really astounding is you have both candidates talking about how they promise to protect the program. If we do nothing, in nine years, there will be across-the-board benefit cuts of almost a quarter for every retiree who is collecting benefits, and that’s unconscionable.
Lisa Desjardins:
And, Amna, it’s also not something either candidate is really facing up to on the campaign trail.
Amna Nawaz:
OK, so that is Social Security.
Medicare is also at risk. What do the candidates say about that?
Lisa Desjardins:
I’m sorry to say, neither candidate has a plan to stabilize that either, but Harris does have some proposals for Medicare that are significant and we should point out.
She wants to expand the plan and would negotiate all drug prices, and that could save billions of dollars for Medicare and for the government. She likes to point out that she and President Biden expanded the program and started the program to negotiate on drugs.
But former President Trump does not have a specific prescription drug plan, and he also — it’s not clear if he would allow Medicare to keep negotiating prices or if he would expand it. We just don’t know.
Harris would use the savings from this idea of negotiating more drug prices to begin a new benefit for in-home care. Former President Trump also is interested in that, but it’s not clear how he would pay for it. As things stand, though, the bottom line is neither candidate has a plan to stabilize Medicare, and we are on that same track, in other words, a program that will face benefit cuts if nothing else happens.
Amna Nawaz:
Lisa, it’s fair to say the situation with both these systems is approaching dire. So how do voters feel about this? What do they say?
Lisa Desjardins:
This is a really important sleeper issue, especially with a key group of voters, older voters.
The AARP did a survey of American voters over 50, and they found that Harris has an advantage here. When asked, who do you trust more on Social Security and Medicare, 48 percent said they trust her more than Donald Trump.
One more thing, we keep talking about how the economy tops concern for voters. This is part of that issue in America. The AARP found that, with those voters over 50, that when they were asked about what would help them most financially, their personal economy, Social Security, protecting Social Security, was tied for first with food prices.
We talk so much about inflation, but keeping Social Security intact is something that older voters realize is a key part of their economy and also the national economy.
Amna Nawaz:
So important to point out the economy means so many things to different people.
Lisa Desjardins:
That’s right.
And older voters, this is an issue that I think has just not been given enough attention by the candidates, in part because it is difficult. Either you have to raise some kind of revenue or you have to cut benefits. They know that’s the case.
And the longer that they wait, Amna, the more painful it’s going to be for them, for our seniors, for you and I, for just about everyone waiting. So this is really sort of a failure in addressing a critical American problem.
Amna Nawaz:
Lisa Desjardins, thank you so much.
Lisa Desjardins:
You’re welcome.